A recent study projects the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to take the lead in 11 regions in the upcoming December 7 elections.
Research conducted by SBM Intelligence indicates that the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) share of votes in its traditional stronghold, the Ashanti Region, will likely see a slight dip. This forecast comes as political parties ramp up their campaign efforts with just three months remaining before the presidential and parliamentary elections.
“In the elections, the NDC is projected to secure victory in 11 regions, including all three swing regions, leaving only five regions for the NPP,” states the September 2024 report. The NPP is anticipated to face strong competition from the NDC in the Northern, Western North, and Oti regions.
Historically, the Ashanti Region has remained loyal to the governing NPP. However, in this year’s election, the party is projected to secure approximately 70.5% of the votes in Ashanti, down from the 72.8% it achieved during the 2020 presidential election.
Additionally, in the 2024 presidential race, “the NDC is expected to easily maintain three regions (Upper East, Upper West, and Savannah) out of the five and challenge the NPP for dominance in the Northern Region.” The report further states that “in the North East, Bawumia’s candidacy is projected to help the NPP maintain its position, boosting its vote share from 51.40% to 55.8%.”
The report, titled Ghana’s 2024 Elections: A Preview, provides data updated as of Thursday, September 12, 2024. Earlier this month, over 20 presidential candidates successfully submitted their forms to the Electoral Commission (EC) for the upcoming election. This follows the rise of new candidates looking to challenge the two dominant parties.
On this matter, the research points out that “many Ghanaians wonder about the potential of these emerging third-party forces to pose a serious challenge to the NPP and NDC.” The report adds that the prevailing view is that, at most, these smaller parties could push the election into a runoff.
SBM Intelligence is a geopolitical research and strategic communications consulting firm focused on Africa. The firm addresses critical needs in political, social, economic, and market data, utilizing big data analytics.
